Is Ethereum ETH Price Poised for a 20% Price Surge? Technicals Say Yes

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been showing signs of a potential rally in the mid-term. Recent data from the futures market and key indicators suggest that the bullish sentiment surrounding ETH is on the rise.

TLDR

Ethereum’s futures open interest and positive funding rates suggest a potential rally above $4,000 in the mid-term.
Key indicators like MACD and DMI confirm a rise in bullish sentiment in ETH’s spot market.
Ethereum is holding gains above $3,400 and could potentially reach $4,500 or even $5,000 in the coming weeks if bulls remain active.
VanEck and CoinShares CEOs express doubts about the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of 2024.
JPMorgan strategists believe the SEC will eventually approve spot Ethereum ETFs, possibly after a litigation process following a potential rejection in May.

According to a report by pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst ShayanBTC, Ethereum’s futures open interest has been climbing, and funding rates have remained positive despite the general market consolidation in March. Positive funding rates indicate that more traders are holding long positions, expecting the asset’s price to increase in the short to mid-term.

The report also highlights a “corresponding spike in the funding rates metric” as ETH attempts to reclaim the $4,000 price mark, suggesting an aggressive execution of long positions by market participants.

Coinglass data shows that Ethereum’s futures open interest reached $15 billion, growing by 7% in the last seven days.

In addition to the futures market, key indicators on Ethereum’s spot market also confirm the rise in bullish sentiment. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) line has crossed above the signal line for the first time since March 15th, indicating an increase in bullish momentum. Moreover, ETH’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows that the positive directional index has crossed above the negative index, confirming the change in sentiment from bearish to bullish.

Ethereum’s price action also suggests a potential rally, with the cryptocurrency holding gains above the $3,400 level. If bulls remain active, ETH could potentially reach $4,500 or even $5,000 in the coming weeks. However, immediate resistance lies near the $3,800 level, and a clear break above $4,080 could open the doors for further upside.

While the technicals paint a bullish picture, there is still uncertainty surrounding the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck and CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti have both expressed doubts about the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of 2024.

VanEck, which has filed for a spot Ethereum ETF, believes there is a probability of rejection when the SEC concludes its review on May 23rd. Mognetti, on the other hand, doesn’t see anything being approved this side of the year, citing skepticism regarding SEC approval for proof of stake protocols.

However, JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believe that the SEC will eventually approve spot Ethereum ETFs, albeit not as soon as May. They suggest that if there is no approval in May, a litigation process similar to the Grayscale and Ripple legal battles may follow, ultimately leading to the SEC’s approval of spot Ethereum ETFs.

Despite the regulatory uncertainty, Ethereum’s on-chain metrics provide further evidence of a potential rally. Nearly $1.2 billion worth of liquidity has been pulled off from the spot market over the last month, hinting at a bullish sign. If this supply shock persists, it could support a further rally in ETH’s price.

While the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF remains uncertain, the technicals and on-chain metrics suggest that ETH could be poised for a significant rally in the mid-term.